India’s goods exports declined 2.6 per cent (year-on-year) to $34.47 billion in September, the fifth month of fall this fiscal, weighed down by the petroleum, gems & jewellery, chemicals, and garments sectors.
But the government is optimistic that the “greenshoots” of growth are visible, and shipments may rise in the remaining six months.
Imports, deficit down
Imports fell by 15 per cent to $53.84 billion in September, as petroleum arrivals dipped 20.3 per cent to $14 billion. This narrowed the trade deficit to a five-month low of $19.37 billion, per quick estimates released by the Commerce Department on Friday.
“Last month we saw some greenshoots in terms of improvement in exports, although the global scenario is quite bleak. This has been confirmed by September data. Weekly trends for exports in October are also positive,” said Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal.
Excluding peytroleum exports (which were negative because of a fall in global oil prices) and gems and jewellery, goods shipments in September at $24.78 billion were a tad higher than $24.33 billion in the same month last year, he added.
In a revision of data after some “reconciliation” with the Customs Department, August exports are now estimated higher at $38.4 billion, which translates to a 3.88 per cent growth (year-on-year) instead of the 6.8 per cent fall announced last month when exports for the month were pegged at $34.48 billion.
“In the current financial year, this (August) is the first month where we have achieved positive growth,” Director-General of Foreign Trade Santosh Sarangi said.
services doing well
The Commerce Secretary pointed out that services exports were doing well, and the fall in merchandise exports had slowed, ringing in optimism. “I think for the remaining six months, there should definitely be positive growth in our exports. In fact, these greenshoots are getting confirmed,” he added.
Exports in the April–September period declined 8.77 per cent to $211.4 billion. Imports during the six-month period fell 12.23 per cent to $326.98 billion.
Sluggish global demand coupled with subdued growth in economies like the US and Australia have led to declining export trends, though the downward movement is largely arresting, pointed out the exporters’ body, FIEO.
“The need of the hour is to provide easy and low-cost credit to MSMEs, marketing support for promoting overall exports, and GST exemption on freight on exports,” said FIEO President A Sakthivel.
