India’s refined petroleum product exports likely to slip in September on reduced outflows of diesel and petrol: OPEC

India’s exports of refined petroleum products (POL) are expected to decline in September, after rising for two consecutive months, on account of lesser outbound shipments of diesel and petrol.

According to OPEC’s monthly oil market report for October, “Product exports are expected to slip in September due to reduced outflows of diesel and gasoline driven by planned maintenance at export-oriented refiners.”

Trade sources also anticipate that exports from the world’s fourth largest refiner are likely to soften beginning September due to Autumn maintenance at refineries and stocking of auto fuels ahead of the festival October-December season, when domestic fuel consumption picks up.

POL Exports

As per the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), India’s POL exports rose to 5.36 million tonnes (mt) in July 2023 from 5.01 mt in June.

PPAC data also show that India’s exports of POL rose by almost 9 per cent m-o-m to 5.83 mt in August largely supported by outbound shipments of diesel, Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) and fuel oil. This was the highest in FY24 and the second highest in the current calendar year.

According to OPEC’s monthly report, India’s product exports rose 7 per cent m-o-m, or 99,000 barrels per day (b/d), to average 1.4 million b/d (mb/d), a five-month high.

“Gains were seen in fuel oil, jet fuel and other products. The increase in outflows comes amid lower domestic demand during the monsoon season and higher demand for jet fuel on the international market. Compared to the same month last year, product outflows from India were up by 144,000 b/d, or 11 per cent,” it added.

Softening imports

OPEC said that India’s crude imports continued to decline, falling to a 10-month low of 4.4 mb/d in August, with the monsoon season weighing on domestic demand. Compared to the previous month, crude inflows were down 185,000 b/d, or 4 per cent. Y-o-Y, crude imports were lower by 0.3 mb/d, or around 6 per cent.

“In terms of crude imports by source, Kpler data show Russia was the top supplier of crude to India in August, with a share of 32 per cent, after holding a share of 44 per cent in July. Iraq was second with 20 per cent, followed by Saudi Arabia with 9 per cent.

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