RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday highlighted the uncertainties surrounding the overall inflation outlook. Factors contributing to this uncertainty include a decline in kharif sowing for crucial crops such as pulses and oilseeds, lower reservoir levels, and unpredictable fluctuations in global food and energy prices. 

While the RBI anticipates near-term inflation to ease, primarily driven by corrections in vegetable prices and reductions in LPG prices, the future trajectory remains contingent on a multitude of factors. Notably, the area sown under pulses for kharif crops is lower than the previous year, and close monitoring is required for kharif onion production. 

These uncertainties underscore the complexities that influence inflation trends, making it imperative to closely monitor and assess various contributing elements. 

Deficient rainfall 

According to IMD data, out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, three subdivisions constituting nine per cent of the total area of the country received excess, 26 subdivisions received normal rainfall (73 per cent of the total area) and seven subdivisions (18 per cent of the total area) received deficient season rainfall. 

The seven meteorological subdivisions that got deficient rainfall include Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (NMMT), Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, East UP, South interior Karnataka and Kerala. 

Kharif sowing 

The data available with the government show that in comparison to the previous year when pulses were sown across 128.49 lakh hectares, this season saw a decrease with pulses sown on 122.57 lakh hectares in India. Sowing of arhar, urd, moongbean, kulthi and others has also declined. 

Regarding oilseeds, last kharif season witnessed sowing on more than 196.08 lakh hectares, whereas this season’s sowing covered 192.91 lakh hectares. Cotton sowing has experienced a decrease, dropping from over 127.57 lakh hectares to 123.42 hectares. 

On the other hand, rice cultivation has expanded, increasing from 400.72 lakh hectares to 411.52 hectares. Coarse cereals sowing has also seen growth, rising from 183.73 lakh hectares to 186.07 lakh hectares. 

 Low water storage 

The overall storage position of 150 water reservoirs in the country monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC) is less than the corresponding period of last year in the country as a whole and also less than the average storage of the last ten years during the corresponding period. 

This week storage available is 83 per cent of the live storage of the corresponding period of last year and 94 per cent of storage of average of last 10 years. 

The situation in the southern region is worrisome. Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have 42 reservoirs under CWC monitoring have 50 per cent live storage of the total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. The storage in these States during the corresponding period of last year was 92 per cent and the average storage for the last 10 years during the corresponding period was 75 per cent of live storage capacity of these reservoirs. 

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