India’s goods exports declined for the seventh consecutive month in August 2023 (year-on-year), falling by 6.86 per cent to $34.48 billion, pulled down by sectors such as petroleum products, gems and jewellery, readymade garments, and chemicals. But with half of the top thirty export items, including engineering, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and some agriculture goods, posting growth during the month, the government is optimistic about the future.

Imports in August 2023 declined 5.23 per cent to $58.64 billion, primarily due to a fall in imports of petroleum, coal and coke, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, and fertilizers, per quick estimates released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Friday. The trade deficit in August 2023 was at a ten-month high of $24.16 billion but remained flat compared to August 2022.

Stabilising exports

“Exports are stabilising now. The pessimism (till July) is getting converted into optimism, and now clearly green shoots are visible. The industry says their export orders are better, and they are also optimistic about the export order books,” Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said at a media briefing.

Non-petroleum exports in August 2023, at $28.60 billion, were at almost the same level as exports last August, reinforcing the “optimism’’ around possible greenshoots.

Some exporters, too, share the optimism. “After eight consecutive months of year-on-year decline, engineering goods exports have turned positive. We remain optimistic about a resurgence in engineering exports in the coming months as global demand conditions improve and geo-political issues abate,” said EEPC India Chairman Arun Kumar Garodia.

Exports will start showing better growth numbers as things are expected to improve in the next few months with more fresh orders coming and order bookings for the Christmas and New Year season, said FIEO President A Sakthivel.

Imports of oil in August 2023 fell 23.76 per cent to $13.2 billion, while gold imports during the month increased 38.75 per cent to $4.93 billion.

In April-August 2023, exports contracted by 11.9 per cent to $172.95 billion, while imports declined by 12 per cent to $271.83 billion.The trade deficit in the five-month period shrank to $98.88 billion, compared to $112.85 billion in the same period last fiscal. Non-petroleum exports in April-August 2023 were 7.3 per cent lower at $141.29 billion compared to the same period last year.

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